Research / Investigación



Working papers, papers submitted and under revision

“Managing the Fiscal Risks Wrought by PPPs: A Simple Framework and Some Lessons from Chile” (with M. Ferrari, R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Policy Research Paper 10056, World Bank Group. May 2022.

“Financing PPP projects with PVR contracts: Theory and Evidence from the UK and Chile” (with R. Fischer, A. Galetovic and J. Soto). May 2019.

“Renegotiations and corruption in infrastructure: The Odebrecht Case” (with N. Campos, R. Fischer and A. Galetovic). January 2019. Latest version: May 2019.

“Dealing with the Obsolescence of Transport Infrastructure in Public-Private Partnerships” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic). December 2018.

“Missing Aggregate Dynamics: On the Slow Convergence of Lumpy Adjustment Models” (with D. Berger and R. Caballero). Latest version: November 2018.

“Determinantes de la participación electoral en Chile” (with A. Bucarey and M. Jorquera), working paper, FEN, U. de Chile, April 2013.

“On the efficient provision of roads” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic). Mimeo, December 2012.

“Public-Private Partnerships to Revamp U.S. Infrastructure” Discussion Paper No. 2011-02, Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC. February 2011.

“The Educational Transition and Decreasing Wage Inequality in Chile” (with J. Eberhard). Mimeo. November, 2008.

“Competition in or for the Field: Which is Better?” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), latest version: July 2007.

“Price Stickiness in Ss Models: Basic Properties” (with Ricardo Caballero), October 2006.

“Optimal Fiscal Strategy for Oil Exporting Countries” (with R. Valdés), Working Paper No. 78, Center of Applied Economics (CEA), Dep. Ind. Engineering, U. of Chile, June 2000.

“Understanding Tax Evasion Dynamics" (with J. Hines), NBER Working Paper No. 6903. January 1999.




Books and Monographs

The Economics of Public-Private Partnerships: A Basic Guide. (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Cambridge University Press, 2014. Translated into Chinese and Japanese.

External Shocks and Stabilization Mechanisms. (co-editor: P. Meller), Washington D.C.: Inter-American Development Bank and Johns Hopkins University Press, 1993.

A Road to Randomness in Physical Systems. Springer Lecture Notes in Statistics No. 71, New York: Springer Verlag, 1992.




Journal articles

“The Company You Keep: Renegotiations and Adverse Selection in Transportation Infrastructure” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Economics of Transportation, June 2024.

“Citizens’ Stability of Electoral Preferences in Chile since the Social Upheaval” (with D. Altman, J. Díaz and B. Peña). Journal of Politics in Latin America, August 2023.

“Audit Threats and Year-End Spending by Government Agencies: Experimental Evidence from Chile” (with F. Jordan, T. Rau and A. Repetto), J. of Public Procurement, accepted.

“Private finance of public infrastructure” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Annual Review of Financial Economics, 14, 339–335, 2022.

“The Ways of Corruption in Infrastructure: Lessons From the Odebrecht Case” (with N. Campos, R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), J. of Economic Perspectives, 35 (2), 171–190, Spring 2021.

“Public-Private Partnerships: Some Lessons After 30 Years” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Regulation, Fall 2020, 3–7.

“Soft budgets and endogenous renegotiations in transport PPPs: An equilibrium analysis” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Economics of Transportation, 17, 40–50, March 2019.

“Using small businesses for individual tax planning: evidence from special tax regimes in Chile” (with C. Agostini, A. Repetto and D. Vergara). International Tax and Public Finance, 25(6), 1449–1489. December 2018.

“The Joy of Flying: Efficient Airport PPP Contracts” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Transportation Research Part B, 114, 131–146, 2018.

“Risk and Public-Private Partnerships” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), CESifo DICE Report, 3/2014.

“Aggregate Implications of Lumpy Investment: New Evidence and a DSGE Model” (with R. Bachmann and R. Caballero), American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 5 (4), 29–67, 2013.

“Highway networks and PPPs: An alternative to traditional public provision?” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Network Industries Quarterly, 15 (1), 6–9, 2013.

“The Basic Public Finance of Public-Private Partnerships” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), J. of the European Economic Association, 11, 83–111, 2013.

“Effective Labor Regulation and Microeconomic Flexibility” (with R. Caballero, K. Cowan and A. Micco), J. of Development Economics, 101, 92–104, 2013.

Comment on N. Barr and P. Diamond, “Reforming pensions: Lessons from economic theory and some policy directions” Economia, The Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economics Association (LACEA), 11, 1, 15–23, 2010.

“The economics of infrastructure finance: Public-Private Partnerships versus public provision” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), EIB Papers, 15, 41–69, 2010.

“Price Stickiness in Ss Models: New Interpretations of Old Results” (with R. Caballero), J. of Monetary Economics, 54, 100–121, 2007.

“Privatizing Highways in the United States” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Review of Industrial Organization, 29, 27–53, 2006.

“Highway Franchising and Real Estate Values” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), J. of Urban Economics, 57, 432–448, 2005.

“Three Strikes and You’re Out: Reply to Cooper and Willis” (with R. Caballero), American Economic Review, 94 (4), 1238–1244, September 2004.

“How to Auction a Bottleneck Monopoly when Underhand Vertical Agreements are Possible” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), J. of Industrial Economics, 52 (3), 427–455, September 2004.

“Could Higher Taxes Increase the Demand for Capital?: Theory and Evidence from Chile” (with A. Bustos and A. Galetovic), J. of Development Economics, 73, 2004, 675–697.

“Toll Competition Among Congested Roads” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Topics in Economic Analysis & Policy, 4 (1), 2004, Article 4.

“Privatizing Highways in Latin America: Fixing What Went Wrong” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Economia, The Journal of the Latin American and Caribbean Economics Association (LACEA), 4(1), October 2003, 129–158.

“A New Approach to Private Roads” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Regulation, Fall 2002, 18–22.

“Least-Present-Value-of-Revenue Auctions and Highway Franchising” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), J. of Political Economy, 109 (5), October 2001, 993–1020.

“A Note on Enforcement Spending and VAT Revenues” (with A. Galetovic and C. Raddatz), Review of Economics and Statistics, 83 (2), May 2001, 384–387.

“Poisoned grapes, mad cows, and protectionism” J. of Policy Reform, 4 (2), 91–111, 2000.

“Explaining Investment Dynamics in US Manufacturing: A Generalized (S,s) Approach” (with R. Caballero), Econometrica, 67 (4), 783–826, July 1999.

“Taxes and Income Distribution in Chile: Some Unpleasant Redistributive Arithmetic” (with A. Galetovic and C. Raddatz), J. of Development Economics, 59 (1), 155–192, June 1999. Translation into Spanish published in Trimestre Económico, 280, October-December 2003.

“Highway Franchising: Pitfalls and Opportunities” (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 87 (2), 68–72, May 1997. Reprinted in D. Grimsey and M.K. Lewis, eds., The Economics of Public Private Partenrships, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar, February 2005.

“Aggregate Employment Dynamics: Building from Microeconomic Evidence” (with R. Caballero and J. Haltiwanger), American Economic Review, 87 (1), 115–137, March 1997.

“Plant-Level Adjustment and Aggregate Investment Dynamics” (with R. Caballero and J. Haltiwanger), Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1995 (2), 1–39, 1995

“Consumer Protection Policies and Rational Behavior” Revista de Análisis Económico, 10:2, 183–202, 1995

“Microeconomic Rigidities and Aggregate Price Dynamics” (with R. Caballero), European Economic Review, 37 (4), 697–711, 1993

“Let’s Make a Deal!” (with A. Venetoulias), Mathematical Scientist, 18, 73–84, 1993

“Microeconomic Adjustment Hazards and Aggregate Dynamics” (with R. Caballero), Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108 (2), 359–383, 1993

“Heterogeneity and Output Fluctuations in a Dynamic Menu-Cost Economy" (with R. Caballero), Review of Economic Studies, 60 (1), 95–119, 1993

“Beyond the Partial Adjustment Model” (with R. Caballero), American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 82 (2), 360–364, May 1992

“The Chilean Plebiscite: Projections Without Historic Data” (with A. Venetoulias), J. of the American Statistical Association, 87, 933–941, 1992

“Monty Hall’s Probability Puzzle” (with A. Venetoulias), Chance, 4, 6–9, 1991

“Dynamic (S,s) Economies” (with R. Caballero), Econometrica, 59 (6), 1659–1686, November 1991; reprinted in E. Sheshinski and Y. Weiss, eds., Optimal Pricing, Inflation, and the Cost of Price Adjustment, MIT Press, 1993

“A Subjective Guide to Objective Chance” (with P. Diaconis), Statistical Science, 1, 171–174, 1986

“Precision of Circadian Wake and Activity Onset Timing in the Mouse” (with D. K. Welsh, G. Richardson and W. Dement), J. Comparative Physiology A, 158, 827–834, 1986

“A Unified Approach to the Study of Sums, Products, Time-Aggregation and other Functions of ARMA Processes” J. Time Series Analysis, 5, 159–171, 1984




Book chapters

“The regulation of Public-Private Partnerships" (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), forthcoming in A. Tirachini and E. Verhoef, Handbook on Transport Pricing and Financing

“Taxes, Transfers, and Income Distribution in Chile: Incorporating Undistributed Profits,” in N. Lustig (editor). Commitment to Equity Handbook: Estimating the Impact of Fiscal Policy on Inequality and Poverty. 2nd Edition. Brookings Institution Press. 2022.

“When and How to Use Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure: Lessons from the International Experience” with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic, chapter 6 in E. Glaeser and J. Poterba (eds), Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment, National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021.

“Urban Transport: Can Public-Private Partnerships Work?” with A. Galetovic, chapter 7 in The Urban Imperative: Towards Competitive Cities, Edward Glaeser and Abha Joshi-Ghani (eds), Oxford University Press, 2015.

“Finance and Public-Private Partnerships” Chapter 7 in A. Heath and M. Read (eds.), Financial Flows and Infrastructure Financing. Reserve Bank of Australia, 2014.

“Chile’s Fiscal Rule as Social Insurance” with C. Neilson and R. Valdés, Chapter 10 in L. F. Céspedes and J. Gali, (eds), Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, Central Bank of Chile, 2013.

“Optimal Resource Extraction Contracts Under Threat of Expropriation” with R. Fischer, chapter 5 in W. Hogan and F. Sturzenegger, editors, Populism and Natural Resources, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2010.

“The New Reality of Public Finance” in P. Arriarán (editor), Visions From Finis Terrae: Chilean Voices in the United States, Washington, D.C.: Inter-American Dialogue, 105–113, 2008.

Comment on “Infrastructure and Development” by Rémy Prud’homme, in F. Bourguignon and B. Pleskovic (eds.), Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics: Lessons from Experience. 181–187, 2005.

“Microeconomic Flexibility in Latin America,” with R. Caballero and A. Micco, in J. Restrepo and A. Tokman (eds). Labor Markets and Institutions, Santiago: Central Bank of Chile, 1–38, 2004. Translation into Spanish published in Economía Chilena, 7 (2), 329–366, 2004. Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 10398, March 2004.

“Infrastructure Franchising and Government Guarantees”, with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic, in T. Irwin, M. Klein, G. Perry and M. Thobani (eds), Dealing with Public Risk in Private Infrastructure, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 89–105, 1997. Reprinted in Revista de Análisis Económico, 13, 1, 51–74, 1998.

“Revenue Based Auctions and the Unbundling of Infrastructure Franchises”, with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic, in Alternatives to Traditional BOTs for Financing Infrastructure Projects, Washington, D.C.: Inter-American Development Bank, forthcoming.

“Privatizing Roads—A New Method for Auctioning Highways”, (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Public Policy for the Private Sector, 5–8, June 1997. Reprinted in S. Smith (ed), The Private Sector in Infrastructure, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, September 1997.

“Poisoned grapes, mad cows, and protectionism”, in Spanish, in R. Fischer (ed), The New Faces of Protectionism, Santiago: Dolmen, 89–127, 1997.

“A New System for Auctioning High School Textbooks”, (with F. Alliende, E. Barros, J. Cauas, B. Eyzaguirre, L. Fontaine, A. Fontaine, F. Pérez, L. Sierra), in Spanish, in B. Eyzaguirre and L. Fontaine (eds), The Future at Risk: Our High School Textbooks, Santiago: Centro de Estudios Públicos, 415–453, 1997

“The Basics of Consumer Protection: Principles and Policies”. Chap. 6 in C. Frischtack (ed), Regulatory Policies and Reform: A Comparative Perspective, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 104–130, 1995.

“Beyond the Basics of Consumer Protection”, Chap. 7 in C. Frischtack (ed), Regulatory Policies and Reform: A Comparative Perspective, Washington, D.C.: World Bank, 131–143, 1995.

“Review of External Shocks and Stabilization Mechanisms”, (with P. Meller), Chap. 1 in E. Engel and P. Meller (eds), External Shocks and Stabilization Mechanisms, Washington D.C.: IADB and Johns Hopkins University Press, 1–23, 1993

“Transitory Shocks and Stabilization Mechanisms: The Chilean Case”, (with M. Basch), Chap. 2 in E. Engel and P. Meller (eds), External Shocks and Stabilization Mechanisms, Washington D.C.: IADB and Johns Hopkins University Press, 25–111, 1993.

“Report of the Expert Advisory Group on Anti-Corruption, Transparency, and Integrity in Latin America and the Caribbean,” (with D. Ferreira, D. Kaufmann, A. Lara , J. Londoño, B. Noveck, M. Pieth, S. Rose-Ackerman), IADB, November 2018

“Pandemic in Chile: Coming Challenges,” Annals of the Institute of Chile, Vol. XXXIX, 281–290, 2020.

“Public-Private Partnerships in Infrastructure: Reforming the Spanish Toll Road Concessions System,” (with R. Fischer, A. Galetovic and G. de Rus), Cuadernos de Extensión Jurídica, 31, 2018.

“Renegotiation of concessions in Chile,” (with R. Fischer, A. Galetovic and M. Hermosilla), Estudios Públicos, 151–205, Summer 2009.

“Chile: Two or more blocks?”, (with A. Hernando), Perspectivas en Política, Economía y Gestión, 6, 219–230, September 2003.

“What should be done with the Capital Gains Tax”, (with A. Galetovic), Estudios Públicos, 79, 199–236, Winter 2000.

“Taxes and Income Distribution in Chile: Is the VAT regressive?,” (with A. Galetovic and C. Raddatz), Perspectivas en Política, Economía y Gestión, 2 (2), 333–345, 1999

“Consumer Protection in Chile: Why so little and so late?”, Perspectivas en Política, Economía y Gestión, 1 (2), 145–166, 1998

“How to Auction an Urban Road Franchise”, (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Estudios Públicos, 67, 177–214, 1997

“Reply to Klein and Tirole”, (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Estudios Públicos, 67, 215–225, 1997

“Auctioning Highways in Chile”, (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Estudios Públicos, 60, 5–37, 1996

“Evolution of Voting Behavior in Chile: From the Plebiscite of 1988 to the Presidential Election of 1989”, Colección de Estudios CIEPLAN, 28, 73–84, 1990.

"Unemployment, Historic Voting Behavior, and the Plebiscite of 1988”, (with M. Araos), Colección de Estudios CIEPLAN, 27, 5–17, 1989

“Characterization of Discrete ARMA Processes in Terms of Difference Equations Satisfied by their Autocorrelation Function”, Sigma, 8, 23–34, 1981

“A Deterministic Alias-Free Sampling Technique”, Sigma, 7, 19–22, 1981




Books in Spanish

Reformas anticorrupción en Chile (2015–2017): Cómo se hizo para mejorar la democracia, (with M. Aris and M. Jaraquemada), Santiago: Konrad Adenauer Stiftung y Espacio Publico, August 2019.

Economía de las asociaciones público-privadas: Una guía básica, (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), México: Fondo de Cultura Económica, March 2014.

Que gane el más mejor: Mérito y competencia en el Chile de hoy, (with P. Navia), Santiago: Random House, August 2006.




Book chapters in Spanish

“Transparencia, ciudadanía y confianza en las instituciones” en Probidad y Transparencia en el Poder Judicial, Poder Judicial de Chile, 2022.

“Banderas Rojas y Corrupción: Una Evaluación Empírica” (con T. Cortés), en Corrupción en América Latina: Análisis comparado y Propuestas para enfrentarla. FLACSO, IMCO, CSP, BID, Espacio Público, Fedesarrollo. 2021.

“Evaluación de Impacto de las Nuevas Declaraciones de Intereses y Patrimonio en Chile” (con T. Cortés y M. Jorquera), en Corrupción en América Latina: Análisis comparado y Propuestas para enfrentarla. FLACSO, IMCO, CSP, BID, Espacio Público, Fedesarrollo. 2021.

"Capacidades estatales, gestión pública y prevención de la corrupción" en L. Carranza, ed., El desafío del desarrollo en América Latina. Políticas para una región más productiva, integrada e inclusiva. Bogotá, Colombia: CAF. 2020.

"Sociedad civil y reformas anticorrupción: Chile y el mundo, pasado y presente” en I. Arcos (ed), Hacia una nueva agenda de probidad, Santiago: Centro UC-MinSegpres-BID, 2017.

" José Zalaquett y los partidos políticos en Chile: Historia de un informe premonitorio” (con M. Jaraquemada y M. Ríos), en En conquista de los derechos humanos. Homenaje a José Zalaquett, Santiago: Thomson-Reuters, 2017.

"Comentarios a los trabajos de Claudio Agostini y Salvador Valdés", en F. J. Díaz y L. Sierra (eds), Democracia con partidos. Informe para la reforma de los partidos políticos en Chile, Santiago: CEP-CIEPLAN, 2012.

"De Deudor a Acreedor: La Nueva Realidad de las Finanzas Públicas” en J. Gatica, H. Beyer y J. Marshall (eds), Institucionalidad para el desarrollo: Los nuevos desafíos, Santiago: Expansiva-CEP, Octubre 2007.

"Prediciendo el precio del cobre: ¿más allá del camino aleatorio?” (con R. Valdés), Capítulo 7 en P. Meller (ed), Dilemas y debates en torno al cobre, Santiago: Dolmen–CEA, 2002.

"El cobre y estrategia fiscal óptima para Chile” (con A. Drexler y R. Valdés), en F. Morandé y R. Vergara (eds), Análisis empírico del ahorro en Chile, Santiago: CEP–Banco Central de Chile, 2002, 263–280.

"El Programa Chileno de Concesiones de Infraestructura: Evaluación, Experiencias y Perspectivas”, (con R. Fischer y A. Galetovic), en F. Larraín y R. Vergara (eds), La transformación económica de Chile, Santiago: CEP, 201–246, 2000.

“Dinámica de empleo y productividad en manufacturas: Evidencia micro y consecuencias macro”, (con A. Camhi y A. Micco), Cap. 9 en F. Morandé y R. Vergara (eds), Análisis empírico del crecimiento en Chile, Santiago: CEP e ILADES, 197–225, 1997.




Policy reports in Spanish

"Transferencias del Estado a Instituciones Privadas: Diagnóstico y Propuestas para un Mejor Gasto Fiscal" (with A. Barros, P. Benavides and B. García), Espacio Público, July 2023.

"Crisis de las Isapres: Vías de Solución para un Problema Crónico" (with P. Benavides, E. Bitrán, B. García and M. Salinas), Espacio Público, May 2023.

"Autopréstamos en el Sistema de Pensiones: Análisis al Proyecto de Ley de Reforma Previsional" (with P. Benavides, P. Domínguez, A. Repetto and M. Salinas), Espacio Público. Public Policy Note No. 1, April 2023.

"Recomendaciones para Reformar el Sector de Infraestructura Pública" (with N. Campos, R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Espacio Público, April 2020.

"Entrevistas a Agentes Clave en los Procesos de Provisión de Infraestructura Pública" (with N. Campos, R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Espacio Público, January 2020.

"Descripción y Análisis de la Información Pública Sobre el Caso Odebrecht" (with N. Campos, R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Espacio Público, June 2019.

"Instituciones Transversales Relevantes para los Procesos de Provisión de Infraestructura Pública en América Latina" (with N. Campos, R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Espacio Público, May 2019.

"Gobernanza del Sector de Infraestructura Pública" (with N. Campos, R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Espacio Público, May 2019.

“Informe del Grupo Asesor de Expertos en anticorrupción, transparencia e integridad para América Latina y el Caribe,” (con D. Ferreira, D. Kaufmann, A. Lara , J. Londoño, B. Noveck, M. Pieth, S. Rose-Ackerman), Banco Interamericano de Desarrollo, November 2018

"Análisis de Implementación de las Nuevas Reglas de Financiamiento a la Política y Campañas Electorales: Lupa Electoral 2016 y 2017" (with N. Campos M. Jaraquemada and D. Vergara), Espacio Público, October 2018.

"Políticas Eficientes de Inversión y Tarificación de la Infraestructura del Transporte en España" (with R. Fischer and A. Galetovic), Fedea Policy Paper 2018/01, January 2018.

Informe de Política Pública (IPP) "Principios para una Reforma al Sistema de Pensiones" (with E. Fajnzylber, P. Fernández, S. Gray, A. Repetto and D. Vergara), Espacio Público, July 2017.

Memo de Política Pública (MPP) "Principios para una Reforma al Sistema de Pensiones" (with E. Fajnzylber, P. Fernández, S. Gray, A. Repetto and D. Vergara), Espacio Público, July 2017.

IPP "Emparejando la Cancha: Nueva Institucionalidad para la Acción Legislativa" (with C. Agostini, A. Repetto, F. Sara and R. Wagner), Espacio Público, 2016.

MPP "Emparejando la Cancha: Nueva Institucionalidad para la Acción Legislativa" (with C. Agostini, A. Repetto, F. Sara and R. Wagner), Espacio Público, 2016.

"Aclarando las Reglas del Juego: Propuestas para Mejorar la Coordinación entre el SERNAC y los Reguladores Sectoriales" (with D. Pardow), Espacio Público, July 2015.

"Una Aproximación al Valor Económico del Control Fiscal Superior: El Caso de la Contraloría General de la República de Chile" (with F. Huneeus, F. Jordán, A. Leslie, R. Letelier, A. Montecinos, T. Rau, A. Repetto and F. Sara). June, 2015.

"Consejo Asesor Presidencial contra los Conflictos de Interés, el Tráfico de Influencias y la Corrupción: Informe Final" (with B. Baranda, A. Castañón, V. Corbo, R. Costa, A. Etcheberry, O. Feliú, C. Fuentes, J.A. Murillo, A. Repetto, M. Riesco, M. Ríos, L. Sierra, A. Squella, P. Veloso, D. Zovatto).

"Más Democracia para Chile: Propuestas para Avanzar hacia una Saludable Relación entre Dinero y Política" (with A. Ferreiro and E. Ríos), Espacio Público, December 2014.

"Hacia una Sociedad sin Abusos: Propuestas para una Protección Eficaz de los Consumidores" (with E. Muñoz y A. Repetto), Espacio Público, August 2013.